Rain chances arrive by weeks end

We’ll see a bit more excitement as we close out this week and kick off the weekend when it comes to our local weather. Chances of rain increase Friday afternoon and Friday night, with a healthy dose of rain looking likely.

An upper level trough will gradually approach our area from the west as we head through the next few days. As we head into Friday, the nose of a strengthening jet will nudge into our area from the southeast.

As a result, upper level winds will be diverging overhead, and with plenty of moisture available across Iowa and Minnesota, a soaking rain seems likely at this time.

Rain chances will be around Thursday late afternoon and evening as a weak ripple in the jet stream passes overhead. Most locations will remain dry due to limited forcing, but worth mentioning that there is the chance for a few scattered showers.

The best chances of rain arrive Friday afternoon and into the evening hours. This is when forcing/lift and moisture availability will be highest. A steady/soaking rain is then expected to last through Friday night, with many locations seeing at least 0.25″ of rain!

In fact, some model guidance shows our area seeing over half an inch of rain Friday afternoon through Saturday morning! With the ground frozen, most of this precipitation will simply runoff into nearby streets and rivers, not making it highly beneficial to our drought situation. But hey, precipitation is precipitation, and we’ll take it!

Rain chances come to an end Saturday morning as the best forcing and moisture depart the area.

Model guidance shows another trough tracking through early next week and into the New Year, but is still heavily divided on how close the best moisture and energy will be to our area. For now, keeping chances low, but it will be something to watch in the coming days.