Virginia elections signal no major shift in voter sentiment in a state watched closely for clues

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — There were no surprises in Virginia’s three special elections this week, but that won’t stop political observers from looking for clues about voter sentiment in the first official election since President Donald Trump’s sweeping victories in November.

Democrats protected their slim statehouse majority by winning two overlapping, left-leaning districts in special elections that Republicans had hoped would help them gain legislative control and build on the momentum that came with winning not only the White House but both chambers of Congress.

Still, Virginia is not likely to leave the national spotlight anytime soon. It’s one of two states, along with New Jersey, that conducts its governor’s contest in the year immediately following a presidential race, and a fierce partisan fight is expected. Observers also will be monitoring the prospects of incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited and has been flagged as a possible presidential contender in 2028 but must now contend with a Democratic legislature in his final year in office.

The special elections took place on the eve of the lawmakers’ legislative session. As officials gaveled in on Wednesday, Democrats had a narrow 21-19 edge in the state Senate and a 51-49 lead in the House of Delegates just hours after Democrats Kannan Srinivasan and JJ Singh’s victories in northern Loudoun County. In the third race, voters elected Republican Luther Cifers in a conservative district – as predicted by politicos.

The races, particularly the contests in Loudoun, garnered national attention as onlookers monitored Democratic turnout amid post-election exhaustion. Following a snowstorm that closed public schools for days, some residents shoveled out of their driveways to head to the polls. About 19% of eligible voters in Loudoun County cast a ballot in Tuesday’s election, though those numbers are preliminary as Virginia allows mail ballots to arrive after Election Day. By rough comparison, nearly 16% of the county’s eligible voters showed up in a 2019 special state senate election in the same region, though there has since been statewide redistricting.

Unlike electoral contests in most states, Virginia holds most state races in odd-numbered years. In 2025, the executive branch and all 100 seats in the House of Delegates will be on the ballot, making the special races the first of the year but not the last. Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said unlike the special elections, Virginia at-large is more competitive, rendering the races a better indicator of where voters are nationally.

“The upcoming governor’s race would be a much better gauge of political fortunes than three special elections,” Farnsworth said, adding: “There will be no shortage of national money coming into Virginia from both parties. Republicans want to demonstrate that the Trump movement is alive and well by winning a race in Virginia. Democrats want to demonstrate that the Trump movement is past its peak.”

So far, only Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger have entered the race to succeed Youngkin. Youngkin is term-limited in Virginia, making 2025 his final year as governor unless the conservative decides to run in 2029 or later.

There are no indicators, however, that Youngkin has a second term in mind. After opting out of a White House bid last year, Youngkin is one of many Republicans believed to be considering a presidential run in 2028.

He is for now embarking on his last year in Virginia’s executive mansion this term, a period that could be complicated by the closely-divided Legislature. Last month, the governor presented budget amendments to the General Assembly’s money committees, in which he proposed providing tax relief on tips and cars to give money back to middle- and lower-income workers.

It’s too soon to say whether those provisions will be approved by Democratic lawmakers. Farnsworth said Youngkin, whose proposals are contingent on bipartisan support, would need to offer “some pretty major incentives to get Democrats on board.”

“This will be a session that will be devoted largely to making the other side look bad,” he said. “Youngkin will propose some things that the Democrats don’t want. Democrats will put forward some things that aren’t appealing to Republicans, and then they both go into the election telling their base: ‘We’re looking out for you, but we can’t do this by ourselves.’”

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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

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