A different upper level pattern building

Over the next week, we will be exposed to a different upper level pattern than we are accustomed to this summer. This upper level pattern will be responsible for the mild and dry weather ahead.

Currently, an area of high pressure is situated over Texas. Shower and t-storm activity is circumnavigating around the periphery of this high pressure where the jet stream is. As this high pressure builds northward over the coming days, it will lead to the jet stream being forced northward well into Canada temporarily.

Because the ridge will be situated to our west, this will make it difficult for any potent storm systems to make their way into our area through the end of the week. This will also keep the brunt of the heat off to our west, allowing us to experience mild temperatures through a majority of the week.

The ridge temporarily recedes west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow for a bit more cloud cover and cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. By the end of the week; however, another ridge of high pressure will begin to build off west. This time, the ridge will extend further east, allowing more of the warmer temperatures to make their way into our neck of the woods.

As the jet ebbs and flows this week, most of the precipitation will remain to our south, west and north. Temperatures just above the surface will also be warmer than at the surface most of the week, which will make it very difficult for shower and t-storm development. As a result, we are looking at a dry forecast on top of the mild conditions expected.

The Climate Prediction Center has us at great odds of seeing above average temperatures through the weekend into next week, with cooler temperatures arriving by the middle of next week as the ridge to our west breaks down. This may also mean that we eventually may need to add storm chances to forecast early next week, but it’s too soon to say if making that call is necessary at this time.