A few rain chances to watch this week

Thinking has not changed all that much with regards to the rain chances for our area this upcoming work week. The best chances of rain are currently Monday evening, and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

We will be under a rather persistent upper-level pattern the next week. The jet stream will be nearly right above Minnesota and Iowa, with small ripples progressing along the jet. These small ripples will provide just enough forcing to get a few minor precipitation events going, if moisture is available.

The first ripple/trough approaches from the west Monday afternoon and evening. Forcing still looks decent for lift as this trough approaches, with model guidance showing enough moisture in the area to kick off scattered shower activity along a surface low tracking east. This does not take place until after sunset, however, so most of the day Monday will be dry.

Not everyone will see rain with this feature, and those who do see rain will not see a whole lot, with rainfall accumulations remaining around 0.01″ or so.

The next chance of rain arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There are still some uncertainties with this precipitation chance regarding timing, precipitation type, and precipitation extent.

Model guidance is split on where the brunt of the forcing will take place, with some guidance showing a decent amount of forcing across southeastern Minnesota. Temperatures will be around to just below freezing across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, raising the potential for snow to mix in.

Moisture content in the air is also in question, with some models not showing enough moisture to get much of anything going across our area.

At this time, have kept the chance for scattered shower activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with rain being the dominant form of precipitation. No matter the precipitation type, any accumulations will be rather low, only amounting to a few hundredths of an inch.

Another system will pass through the area next weekend, but confidence is not very high on precipitation coverage across the area. For now, the best forcing looking to remain well to our north, so precipitation chances at this time remain rather low.