Active Weather Pattern Ahead

So far this winter, things have been incredibly quiet for the most part! In fact, we just finished our driest January in recorded history in Rochester, MN, with hardly any snowfall the entire month.

Over the next week, however, there is an increasing chance of this changing, with a far more active upper level jet pattern taking shape.

The polar jet will be positioned across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest for a majority of the next week. With the jet overhead, multiple pulses of energy are expected to track from west to east.

The first pulse of energy will arrive across the Northern Plains Sunday, then track across the Upper Midwest Monday. A narrow corridor of heavier snow extending from Aberdeen, SD through Green Bay, WI will set up during this time, resulting in hefty snowfall for locations such as the Twin Cities.

While a majority of computer models show the brunt of this system missing our local area to the north, the southern edge of the band brings the chance for a light wintry mix of precipitation Sunday night through Monday morning. It’s hard to say exactly what type of precipitation will be more prevalent, with inconsistent model guidance regarding temperatures, but there could well be impacts during the Monday morning commute. Something to watch the next day or so!

Another pulse of energy arrives Wednesday. This pulse looks more promising for southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa, but precipitation type remains in question. Models have been bouncing between precipitation types across the area, but odds favor *something* being in our area during this time. Still plenty of time to watch this system, and we’ll have a much better idea of what this system will bring in a few days.

Looking further ahead in time, there is the potential for yet another system next weekend. Model guidance is in good agreement with widespread snow taking place somewhere across the Upper Midwest, with southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa seeing a healthy dose of snow. This event is quite a ways out, however, so details can and likely will change.

With that said, there is a lot to watch in the coming days! You’ll want to check back with the forecast frequently as details become more clear or change!