Further from home, another tropical disturbance

Things are fairly quiet at home here in the Weather First area, so decided to branch out for this one and talk about another tropical disturbance the National Hurricane Center is tracking.

It has been a fairly active Atlantic hurricane season so far, and things do not seem to be quieting down anytime soon. The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles as Invest 98L. The NHC assigns these disturbances as “Invest##L” for tracking and data purposes.

Invest 98L is likely to become the seasons next tropical cyclone, and may do so within the next few days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Once there, it may be as weak as a tropical low or could be a full fledged tropical storm. It will depend on how fast it is able to organize and how far south it can stay while tracking west.

After passing through the Lesser Antilles, it is becoming increasingly probable that regions from Puerto Rico to the Bahamas may see some form of this system by the end of next week. Where it is located will depend on how quickly it can strengthen, which will ultimately determine if it is a United States threat or not.

If the storm is stronger, it will “feel” an expected weakness in between two ridges to its north head north and away from the East Coast quicker. If it takes longer to develop and strengthen, then it will likely track further south and west, where it may eventually impact Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Bahamas. It also may encounter even more favorable conditions there, which may lead to a stronger storm. This further west track may also mean trouble for the East Coast of the US.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with this disturbance, and plenty of time to watch. The main takeaways at this point are that it will likely become a stronger hurricane at some point in its life, and it may also threaten landmasses such as Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and perhaps the United States East Coast.

Folks along the US East Coast will need to watch this carefully in the coming week for any trends either closer to land or away from land. Not a threat here at home, but while things are quiet weather wise, us weather folk always like to keep tabs on things further away too!