Rain chances return Thursday

The next promising chance for widespread rain across the region arrives Thursday, as a frontal system passes through from the west, bringing lift and moisture with it.

The details of this storm system are highly variable at this time, so details can and likely will change between now and Thursday. These are the details we have so far…

Model guidance is in good agreement that Thursday will start out dry. A warm front will be tracking across Minnesota and Iowa, helping to transport warmer temperatures and moisture northward into the area.

Showers, and perhaps thunderstorms, will then begin to develop along/behind the warm front Thursday late morning and into the afternoon. These showers and storms would then track northeastward, overspreading Northern Iowa and Southeastern Minnesota early Thursday afternoon.

As the cold front approaches from the west, there are additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening, and into the overnight hours.

Rain comes to an end late Thursday night, giving way to mainly cloudy skies for Friday morning. Scattered showers will still be possible through the day on Friday based on the latest model guidance, but any precipitation would not last all day, nor would it be widespread.

Rain totals do not look terribly impressive at this time, with model guidance keeping rain totals under half an inch for the most part.

If enough instability can build Thursday morning and afternoon, then there would be the chance for severe thunderstorms across portions of northern Iowa as well. Again, it’s too soon to dive too far into the specifics, but it is something we will need to watch over the coming days.

Again, these details are variable and will likely change. Just something to keep an eye on for the time being, and a more promising chance for rain!