Real spring? Or just another fools spring?

With the warmer temperatures in the forecast, you might be persuaded into thinking spring has arrived! But…has it?

Meteorological spring begins this upcoming Saturday, March 1st. This is the time when we typically begin to see warmer weather begin fighting its way northward. But this is a long, drawn out fight, that sometimes doesn’t make much progress during the month of March, depending on the year.

Another way to think about it, is that astronomical spring does not begin for nearly another month. This is when the sun shines directly down on the equator, so that both hemispheres receive the same amount of light. For the last several months, the northern hemisphere (our hemisphere), has seen more darkness than light, which is what causes winter in the first place, and there is still plenty of cold air to go around as a result.

Astronomical spring is still a month out, though, and the atmosphere typically has about a month long lag time between when more heat energy is put into our atmosphere, and when the cold finally begins to recede for good. So yes, we still have quite a ways to go…

Climatologically, our average high this time of year in Rochester, MN is 30F. Just shy of the freezing mark! But of course, this does not guarantee that highs will be above freezing everyday. Also, our average lows are still in the teens. Again, we still have a ways to go.

With that said, odds favor that this is more of a “fools spring” than anything else, with plenty of more cold and, perhaps snow, to come.

In fact, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) highlights this potential as well in their 2 week temperature outlook. While they do not explicitly indicate colder than average temperatures on the horizon yet, their forecast calls for “equal chances” of either above or below normal temperatures.

The upper level atmospheric pattern we have seen since late November also suggests the cold is not over yet. While we will be warmer these next several days, northwesterly upper level flow is still in place. If/when cold air is able to rebuild closer to the arctic, it will have an easy time getting down here with a flow pattern like the one we are in now (as has been the case all winter).

There are plenty of other indices that meteorologist use to forecast the long range, and while they are well beyond the scope of this article, they all favor a return of much colder air come early March. Something we’ll have to watch for the next week or two! Until then…enjoy the warmth!