Small storm chances the next few days
There will be a few very small chances of rain over the next few days across southeastern Minnesota and northern Iowa. The best chance of rain in the foreseeable future holds off until next Thursday.
Our first slight storm chance arrives Saturday night, as a very weak and subtle ripple of energy passes overheard the Weather First area. Model guidance is back and forth on showing storm development tomorrow evening and overnight as this subtle wave moves through. Given our proximity to a building high pressure ridge and warm temperatures aloft, odds favor the area staying dry. Even if a storm or two manages to form, severe weather is not a concern at this time.
The next chance of storms arrives Monday, but once again, this is a very slight chance. A cold front is expected to track across Minnesota from the west/northwest Monday afternoon and into the evening hours. The best forcing with this cold front is expected to be across northern and central Minnesota. Additional, warm air aloft should keep a stable environment around as the cold front passes through the viewing area. The result would be us staying mostly dry once again.
If any storms do manage to form Monday, severe weather is a possibility. There will be plenty of storm fuel around thanks to the heat and humidity we will have with us, as well as shear along the cold front. Any storms that can break through the warm air cap could easily take advantage of these ingredients and become severe. Once again though, the odds of this happening are very low at this time.
The next best chance of more widespread storms looks to hold off until next Thursday, as another cold front tracks through Minnesota. Details are still fuzzy though with this event since it is almost a week away.
In general, it’s going to be on the quiet side across the area for the next several days. Nearby high pressure should work to keep storms out of our area as we experience some of the warmest weather of the summer this weekend and into early next week.
